OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034: What It Means for the Future of Poultry
Quick Look
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034 forecasts that poultry will remain the fastest-growing meat sector over the next decade. Rising global populations, increasing incomes in developing countries, and poultry's exceptional feed efficiency are expected to drive continued expansion. At the same time, pressure on farmland, feed supplies, trade, and animal welfare will shape how poultry is produced in the future.
Citation
OECD & Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034
Published July 2025.
Why This Report Matters
Unlike a scientific experiment, this report analyzes worldwide agricultural production using historical data, economic modeling, trade statistics, and demographic projections.
Its purpose is to answer one question:
How will the world feed nearly 9 billion people during the next decade?
For poultry producers, the report offers insight into why breeding companies, governments, and food producers are investing heavily in poultry genetics and production efficiency.
About the Report
Before diving into the poultry findings, readers should understand what this publication is—and what it is not.
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is not a peer-reviewed experimental study. It does not compare treatment groups or test a biological hypothesis.
Instead, it is a large-scale statistical and economic forecast developed by two of the world's leading agricultural organizations. The report combines historical production data, international trade statistics, demographic projections, commodity markets, government policy assumptions, and economic models to estimate how agriculture may evolve over the next decade.
Like any forecast, its conclusions depend on assumptions. Unexpected events—such as disease outbreaks, wars, major policy changes, severe weather, or technological breakthroughs—can change future outcomes. Even so, the report provides one of the most comprehensive outlooks available for global agriculture and is widely used by governments, researchers, and industry leaders.
Population Continues to Grow
One of the biggest drivers behind every projection is population growth.
The report estimates that the global population will continue increasing throughout the next decade, with much of that growth occurring in Africa and Asia.
As incomes increase in developing countries, consumers generally purchase more animal protein.
This trend drives demand for poultry.
Poultry Leads Global Meat Growth
Perhaps the most important conclusion for poultry producers is this:
Poultry is expected to account for approximately 62% of all additional meat consumed worldwide during the outlook period.
No other livestock sector is projected to expand as rapidly.
The report identifies several reasons:
superior feed efficiency
relatively low production costs
short production cycle
affordability
broad cultural acceptance
lower greenhouse gas emissions than ruminants
This finding reinforces why poultry remains the fastest-growing source of animal protein worldwide.
Where Growth Will Occur
The report does not predict equal growth everywhere.
Instead, production expansion is expected primarily in:
China
Southeast Asia
India
Africa
Latin America
Many developed countries already have relatively mature poultry markets.
Future growth will increasingly come from regions with expanding populations and rising incomes.
Feed Becomes Increasingly Important
One of the most interesting connections appears in the crop chapters.
Modern poultry production depends heavily on:
corn
soybeans
wheat
The report projects continued increases in crop production but also notes increasing pressure from:
climate variability
land availability
fertilizer costs
transportation
geopolitical uncertainty
This means improving feed conversion may become just as important as increasing bird growth.
Every improvement in feed efficiency reduces demand for grain.
Farmland Isn't Unlimited
The report also discusses land use.
Future production is expected to come less from expanding farmland and more from increasing productivity.
This has major implications for poultry genetics.
Rather than simply growing more feed on more acres, agriculture increasingly depends on producing more food from existing resources.
China Is Investing
One of the most interesting regional trends involves China.
Rather than relying heavily on imported poultry, China continues investing in:
domestic breeding
feed production
hatcheries
processing
vertically integrated poultry companies
This reflects a broader emphasis on food security.
Trade Will Continue to Shift
International poultry trade is expected to continue expanding.
Brazil remains a dominant exporter.
The United States continues as a major producer and exporter.
China is increasing domestic production while reducing dependence on imports.
These changes will continue reshaping global poultry markets.
Genetics Matter More Than Ever
One implication is never stated directly.
As demand increases while land becomes increasingly valuable, genetics become more important.
Future improvements may come from:
feed conversion
livability
disease resistance
hatchability
breast yield
robustness
heat tolerance
Commercial breeding companies are responding to these same pressures.
Animal Welfare
Although production efficiency dominates much of the report, animal welfare is becoming increasingly influential in some markets.
Europe continues moving toward slower-growing broilers and higher welfare standards, while other regions place greater emphasis on affordability and food security.
The report itself does not advocate one production philosophy over another but demonstrates that different regions are responding to different economic and social pressures.
My Thoughts
This report reminded me that poultry production is no longer simply about raising chickens.
It has become a global system involving:
genetics
economics
government policy
trade
environmental sustainability
food security
As breeders, we often focus on improving our own flocks.
Commercial breeding companies face a similar challenge on a much larger scale. Every improvement in feed conversion, hatchability, livability, or reproductive efficiency has the potential to affect millions of birds worldwide.
At the same time, society continues to ask important questions about animal welfare, environmental stewardship, and sustainable food production.
The next generation of poultry genetics will likely be judged not only by how efficiently birds grow, but by how successfully those competing priorities can be balanced.
Final Thoughts
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook is not a manual on raising poultry, nor is it a scientific experiment on broiler performance. Its value lies in providing a broad view of the forces shaping agriculture over the next decade. For poultry producers, the report explains why the industry continues to invest in genetics, feed efficiency, vertical integration, and production technology. As global demand for affordable animal protein rises, these factors will increasingly influence not only commercial operations but also the direction of poultry breeding and production around the world.